NFL Week 1 Predictions

I intend to post weekly predictions of each game in the NFL season. I did pretty well last year, in Yahoo's Pro-Pickem, averaging about 10 correct picks per week. Let's see how I do this year.

Colts @ Patriots
The Patriots begin their quest for consecutive victories 16-19 with a rematch of consecutive victory #14, a.k.a. the 2003 AFC Championship. This matchup is between two of the best teams in the AFC, and winner will take away a possibly crucial tie-breaker advantage for the playoffs. New England has not looked so good in the preseason, going 1-3. But the one time the starters played for an extended time, they looked great again. The Colts haven't improved their defense too much. The Patriot secondary will still have Peyton's number, even with the new enforcement of the rules in secondary coverage. Prediction: Patriots.

Bucs @ Redskins
The Bucs are in rebuilding mode and have a shaky offensive line. The Redskins are improving, have significant talent on the defense, and a propensity to blitz. With Buc QB Brad Johnson on the run every play, he won't be able to put up the numbers he usually does. Prediction: Redskins.

Raiders @ Steelers
The Steelers are a better team than many expect, with a balanced offense, but still a weak defense. The Raiders have a weak defense but a good offense. This one should be a high scoring game, coming down to who has the better offense. Prediction: Steelers.

Seahawks @ Saints
Seattle is one of the best teams in the NFC and will take this one easily. Prediction: Seahawks.

Chargers @ Texans
Can anyone actually pick the Chargers to win anything this year? Odds are they will win something somewhere. No one has gone 0-16 since the 70's. Even last year's unit won four games. Prediction: Texans.

Lions @ Bears
The Lions haven't won on the road since the 2000 season, 24 straight road losses, an NFL record. This will be one of their best opportunities to end that streak. Detroit is rising and the Bears are not. Prediction: Lions.

Cardinals @ Rams
Another of those seeming joke matchups. Can anyone pick the Cardinals this year? Aren't they the NFC version of the Chargers? Yes to the first, no to the second (the 49ers are going to be pathetic). I expect to pick the Cardinals a few times this year. But not this week. The Rams at home are near unstoppable, and the Cards don't have much of a defense. Prediction: Rams.

Bengals @ Jets
This is a tough one to call. Palmer hasn't seen the field in a regular season game, but they have a lot of weapons on offense. ("Bengals" and "weapons" in the same sentence, and we're not talking about the irate fans? Whoa!) The Jets don't have as many. Both quarterbacks have something to prove, but Palmer has more to work with. Prediction: Bengals.

Titans @ Dolphins
This one is easy. The Titans are one of the best teams in the AFC (though in decline), the Dolphins will end up one of the worst. Both have good defensive units, but the Dolphins have little offense. Prediction: Titans.

Ravens @ Browns
With time and the retirement of Art Modell, this matchup of the old and new Browns has lost its former drama. It is now just another game, this time between a team with Super Bowl aspirations against a team with fantasies of a .500 season. Prediction: Ravens.

Jaguars @ Bills
This is an intriguing matchup, between two teams coming off losing seasons but with hopes of contending for the Super Bowl. Buffalo ended the season with one of the top defenses, and has potent weapons in Bledsoe, Henry, and Moulds, if the offensive line can block. The Jaguars have an exciting offense but questions on the defense, especially in the pass rush. The way to beat Drew Bledsoe is with relentless pass rush, and Jacksonville won't have it. That will allow the Buffalo offense to dominate. Prediction: Bills.

Falcons @ 49ers
A team with playoff ambitions against a team destined to contend for the top pick in next year's draft. Hmm. Who to pick? Prediction: Falcons.

Giants @ Eagles
Another intriguing matchup. Giant QB Kurt Warner showed he still has something left from his MVP days, when given the chance to stand in the pocket. Like the Bills, if the offensive line can provide some protection, New York has some weapons on offense. And they are going up against a declining defense in Philadelphia. But the Eagles do have pass rush specialist Jevon Kearse on the field, and a blitz-happy defensive coordinator. The Eagle offense will have to contend with a weaker than normal running game. (Last year's committee of three backs has been replaced by a single back, the weakest of the three.) Warner will get blitzed repeatedly, as he has ever since Super Bowl 36, and will look about as good as he has since that Super Bowl. Prediction: Eagles.

Cowboys @ Vikings
Minnesota's Achilles heal last year was playing weak teams. The Cowboys went to the playoffs, and so are not a weak team. So one expects the Vikings to play well. This is a classic matchup between a top defense (Dallas) against a top offense (Minnesota). In such games, I look at the opposite numbers, i.e. the Dallas offense against the Viking defense, and look to who wins that matchup. Minnesota does easily. Prediction: Vikings.

Chiefs @ Broncos
Yet another Week 1 matchup with possible echoes in the post-season. The winner will have a shot at a tie-break advantage over the other. This is another classic matchup, with KC's dominant offense against Denver's not-quite-dominant defense. So, again, the key will be the opposite matchup: Denver's not-quite-dominant offense against KC's, um, existent defense. This isn't clear since I expect KC's defense to more resemble an NFL-grade unit this year. The game will be high-scoring. Denver beat KC once last year, and nearly beat them the other time. The Broncos have a distinct home-field advantage. Prediction: Broncos.

Packers @ Panthers
The AFC has a rematch of last year's conference title game, and the NFC has what should have been a rematch of the NFC title game as bookends to Week 1. (4th and 26! AAAGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!) Anyway, the Panther defense will do a good job stopping both Ahman Green and Brett Favre, with Favre throwing two or three interceptions against a good secondary. The Packer defense will struggle against the Panther offense, especially if Delhomme starts throwing it a lot, which he probably will since the weakest part of the Packer D is the secondary. Prediction: Panthers.